On 3 June 2025, Frontex published its annual risk analysis for the period 2025–2026. The report provides a comprehensive overview of current challenges at the EU's external borders and serves as a basis for strategic planning in European border management. Its conclusions on the main risks inform policy and enable strategic decision-making. The new edition now also offers an analysis of air borders, returns, and vulnerabilities.

With regard to air borders, Frontex observed that forged documents, visa abuse, and the use of less-controlled airports are on the rise. At the EU's eastern land borders, the agency warns of hybrid threats through the targeted use of migration as a means of exerting pressure.

In the south, instability in Africa and other external influences are leading to the emergence of new migration routes and increased smuggling. Organized criminal networks that use digital technologies and drones to circumvent border controls play a growing role. Hybrid threats such as disinformation, sabotage, and attempts to destabilise the EU’s cohesion remain ongoing concerns.

To address the evolving challenges posed by migration, hybrid threats, and cross-border crime, the Frontex report sets out the following recommendations for the EU:

• Adopt a forward-looking and adaptable approach grounded on predictive European Integrated Border Management (EIBM) intelligence and a sound and flexible operational response;
• Ensure the full roll-out and use of European Border Surveillance System (EUROSUR) functionalities;
• Enhance the ability to process and share intelligence with a variety of actors across professional constituencies;
• Enhance border resilience through substantial investments in advanced surveillance technology, intelligence-sharing mechanisms, and capacity-building;
• Reinforce border security as part of the EU Action Plan on Ukraine concerning the threat of firearms diversion and smuggling attempts;
• Strengthen multilateral cooperation, particularly with North African and Western Balkan partners;
• Ensure operational preparedness of the Entry/Exit System (EES) and the European Travel Information and Authorisation System (ETIAS);
• Reinforce its return strategy by balancing the growing role of Frontex with robust national capabilities;
• Align operational readiness with strategic foresight.

Looking ahead, Frontex experts anticipate continued migratory pressure and an expanding mix of security threats, ranging from the movement of high-risk individuals to the development of smuggling routes and weapons trafficking. Cross-border criminality will continue to present a substantial threat to EU security.