On 7 October 2022, Frontex released its annual Risk Analysis for the year 2022/2023. The report presents the situation at the EU’s external borders regarding irregular migration, secondary movements/returns, and cross-border crime as well as an outlook on key risks affecting European Integrated Border Management. According to the report, these risks include the following:

• Irregular migration on the well-established migratory routes to the EU;
• Cross-border crime and terrorism;
• Instrumentalization of migration as a political pressure tool;
• The increasing gap between return decisions and effective returns.

These risks will be further affected by other key factors: mainly the Russian war against Ukraine, climate change, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and an increasingly violent and hostile international environment. To respond to these threats, the report emphasises the need for stronger links between border management authorities and greater law enforcement, customs, and security constituencies.