In its Annual Risk Analysis for the years 2024/2025 (released on 18 July 2024), Frontex looks at the evolving risks and challenges at the EU's external borders. The report is intended to serve as a strategic guide for policymakers, operational leaders, and partners both inside and outside the EU (for reports relating to previous years → eucrim 2/2023, 132-133 and eucrim 3/2022, 181). The 2024/2025 issue focuses exclusively on risks that may arise upon entry to the EU within one year. It concludes with an analysis of overarching risks. The report also provides a comprehensive picture of future challenges and threats, including cross-border crime and terrorism, which could affect the security and functioning of the EU’s external borders.

The strongest determinant of migration is at the eastern borders, where threats to European Integrated Border Management (EIBM) are highly unpredictable, reflecting opaque decision-making at the political level. At the south-eastern border, the Western Balkan migration route will continue to largely reflect developments in the Eastern Mediterranean, as non-regional migrants are mostly unable to enter the Western Balkan region by air. On the Eastern Mediterranean route, host country pressures on Afghan and Syrian migrant populations, the risk of regional escalation of the conflict in Gaza, and protracted conflicts and economic downturns in neighbouring regions are likely to be the main drivers of migration. At the southern borders, the Central Mediterranean route will be affected by several large-scale displacements in the sub-Saharan region. Finally, on the south-western borders, the prevention efforts of the North African partners and the prosecution of smugglers are keeping migration pressure in the Western Mediterranean moderate and stable. However, adverse developments in the Sahel are likely to lead to further peaks in migrant arrivals along the West African route.

Key findings of the report include the following:

• Irregular migration will continue to be the main risk, given geopolitical developments in Europe's immediate neighbourhood with potential implications for European border management, particularly on the eastern and southern borders;
• In times of polarisation of European societies, high-risk individuals pose an increasing threat of terrorism;
• Efforts to improve the security of the green borders as well as the introduction of the Entry/Exit System (EES) and the subsequent European Travel Information and Authorisation System (ETIAS) may divert pressure to border crossing points and increase clandestine entry attempts;
• Cross-border crime is driven by market forces, with organised crime groups showing flexibility in matching supply and demand across borders.

The report concludes by stressing the need for effective international cooperation, the signing of agreements with major transit countries, and prevention activities. Adequate resources and border control capacities as well as a well-trained European Border and Coast Guard are also key to border management.