Risk Analysis 2020

On 28 April 2020, Frontex published its Risk Analysis for the year 2020. In its three main chapters, the analysis assesses the situation with regard to migratory flows, several border management challenges, and it features analysis.

According to the report, the year 2019 saw the lowest number in detections of illegal border-crossings since the year 2013. Other indicators increased from the previous year, however, such as refusal of entry and detections of persons staying illegally.

The report also addresses concerns about current border management challenges such as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on border control and increasing cross-border crimes such as trafficking in drugs and firearms. The featured 2019 Risk Analysis looks at the application of the newly introduced European Border and Coast Guard Agency Regulation (EU) 2019/1896, security risks to the EUs ports caused by blacklisted flag vessels (BLVs), and secondary movements at sea in 2019.

Regarding the possible evolution of the situation at the EU external borders, the report deems it likely that upheavals in key regions of origin will bring the number of illegal border-crossings back to the level that existed prior to 2019. Rallies with migrants organised through social media, having the aim of overwhelming border authorities in order to enter the EU, may also become more likely. Lastly, cross-border crimes at the EU’s external borders may continue to increase. The report does, however, see a distinct possibility for reduced passenger flows across the EU’s external borders for reasons such as the COVID-19 outbreak and measures to counter climate change. Brexit is seen as a further challenge to EU border management and to countering cross-border crime.

Ultimately, the report touches upon a number of unknown scenarios that may challenge European border management such as new migratory flows caused by the COVID-19 outbreak.

News Guide

EU Frontex


Cornelia Riehle LL.M.

Academy of European Law (ERA)

Criminal Law

Deputy Head of Section